Midterm Predictions.

Polling is garbage as we have seen in the last election, so, I am going to discuss trends and people's thinking. Lets start with this, the Democratic strongholds on the coast are not going to change. Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle and Portland already have Democratic people in the House. The question is what the Midwest, southwest and south are going to do. My guess, they are going to vote in Republicans where they have Democrats or at least not turn Democrat. The simple fact is that unemployment is down for the first time in many of these areas. These areas had not had hope for 40 years and now believe they have some. If you want some allegorical evidence, look at Trump's rallies. He can fill a 20,000 person arena on any day, at anytime in these areas. These people are going to vote again because they finally believe their vote matters when it hasn't in a very long time. You can like it or dislike it; but, this is my guess and it is not based on party, I am still a socialist.

Now comes the fun stuff, what comes next if I am right? Well, a deep, deep depression within the Democratic establishment. There current plan, if they were to take the House, would be to spend the next two years trying to impeach Trump. Not to get rid of him; but, to explain the gridlock they intend to create. They don't have a backup plan. If they do not take the House or Senate, they will have to deal with the division within their own party between corporate Democrats and "progressives". As for the Republican party, they will all start to step in line behind Trump or face elimination. Trump has singlehandedly changed the whole party. Every Republican who keeps their office will support Trump more vocally out of fear of losing his voters support.

During the last election I wanted to see Bernie win; but, it did not influence by analysis of the race and I knew Trump was going to win and as much the media said he would not, it was obvious they were lying. When the Media and Hillary vilified the voters prior to the election, it was clear how it would end. Up and including on election night we were told it was over 90% that Hillary would win; but, her campaign new better. Weeks before the election, they cancelled the purchase of the fireworks for election night.

Now here is where it could get really weird. What happens if the Republican party gains even one seat in the House and Senate? You will see a complete and utter meltdown of the media and the Democratic party. Firstly, Trump would get his wall. Now, if he denuclearize North Korea, he gains even more Democratic support and international support. He would also be perfectly positioned in Arabia to negotiate peace with Israel. The midterms are being hotly watched all over the world for the first time. The midterms will prove whether or not populism, majority rule, can effect elections more than wealthy donors and the elites.

I am going to use a strange analogy. The establishment and the wealthy live in a state of constant fear that they may lose what they have. They focus on issues they believe will emotionally impact the rest of us. The last thing they want is to discuss economics or privilege of the wealthy. The social issues are what motivate the well off because economic ones have only benefitted them. The analogy, Roseanne was the number one show on television. She was crushing the ratings. The media hated her for being a Trump supporter. She screwed up and was publicly lynched. The show was way to successful to be forgot, so they killed her off and brought the show back without her. In it's second week it lost half of it's viewership. It has since lost another 25%. The trend is obvious and the media has polled on it, oddly enough everything gets polled. The network carrying her show has ordered just one more episode. That will be a finale. People at the network have said publicly that they may have acted too hastily in firing Roseanne. They thought they could succeed without her; but, they found out they couldn't. They figured they made a mistake only because of the loss in revenue. The media is a business. If Republicans keep the House and Senate, the media will begin acting differently about the Trump voters.

Many states allow early voting and the Republicans are coming out in droves. Biggest numbers in history for early voting. In the rust belt, the Democrats will not get back a single voter and they know it. Hillary continues to vilify people in the Midwest and the popularity of the Democrats is taking a major blow. You cannot insult people for two years and then ask them for their vote. Telling them you want to eliminate the electoral college doesn't make them want to vote for you either.

I am going to watch this election like it was any other action film. I don't really care who wins, in fact I have absolutely no intention to vote. My predictions are not because of my biases, they are because of what I have seen over the last two years. The media and the Democratic party have demonized the Midwest for the past two years nonstop. They now know what the Democratic party thinks of them and why they have not been helped in the last 40 years.

UPDATE:

I finished writing this and posted it then I saw this skit from tonight's Saturday Night Live.

The comments made on YouTube are hilarious. The skit is of people saying they are positive the Democrats will win and showing just how little they actually believe it. The comments to the video are a bunch of Democrats saying that is exactly how they feel. Just imagine what these people will be like if the Republicans gain seats. One of the reasons Democrats are not confident is that they no longer believe the media either. They know the media is biased against Trump and support it for that reason; but, they don't trust them to be honest. These people were told there was a 97% chance Hillary would win the day before the election. They have been freaking out since Trump got elected. They have been going through the stages of grief, literally. First came denial (remember "not my president"). Next came anger, lots and lots of anger. Next comes bargaining, the endless stream of if only's that we have heard. If only for the Russians, white women, green party, misogynists, racists, whatever, we would have won. The next stage is depression. That is what we are seeing now. It starts with a loss of hope and leads to the final step, acceptance.

The Democratic party has had two years to come up with a platform that benefits workers and they haven't. They have a joke platform that starts with Trump bad. There number one issue is healthcare. That is a joke. There most discussed issue is wanting to bring in more immigrants. Wow. Talk about tone deaf. After that they want to talk about trans rights. How is this meant to bring back workers votes?

I am going to tell a little story now. It is meant to help you understand why the Kavanaugh hearings increased Republican support. Most of the people that worked for me were female. I was thought fairly highly by them, they came to me with their personal issues sometimes. I was the safe married guy who was all business for myself and gentle with my employees. In the decades these people worked with me, they never see me flirt with anyone. Not even after my divorce. After the divorce, a few asked me what happened and I told them my wife left me for a family friend and I now had to pay her a very large alimony. The women I knew were outraged that I had to pay her alimony at all. Men on the other hand said, yeah that is what happens. The thing people seem to forget in the media is that women aren't stupid and know other women and they know women who would lie about such a thing. I don't know of a single woman who believes all women. I will further say this, when I got divorced not a single person asked me if I had cheated on my wife. I cannot tell you how many asked if my wife had cheated on me.

The question that remains is, if my prediction is correct, will the Democratic establishment learn a lesson. The answer is probably no. In Texas No Limit Poker (my favorite pastime in life that I can no longer play online) there is a point where you can become what we call "pot committed". You have overcommitted to a hand and cannot afford to pull out. Only the best professionals can walk away from that hand and that happens rarely even for professionals. The  Democratic party is pot committed to their donors for the 2020 Presidential election. Big tech and the banks have committed well over a billion to defeating Trump; but, if after the midterms the Democrats attempt to go more progressive, they will not get that money.

A final note, something most people missed. Trump is travelling the nation talking at Republican events. You can watch the videos. You know what he isn't doing, he isn't saying that you need to send in money for the Republican candidates. He is not fundraising, in fact, I don't believe he even charges an admission fee for the rally's. You are a fool if you think the people attending the rally's would not pay ten or twenty bucks to be there and support Trump. They are willing to wait hours in line and even stand outside and never get in, just to be there. You know what else you haven't heard, you haven't heard of Trump attending endless fundraisers because he hasn't. Why not? His appearance and support for a candidate brings all his voters to the candidate. It is worth more than money. He says to his voters, if this candidate loses, we lose because I will not be able to get anything done. A lot of Trump voters hate Ted Cruz; but, they will vote for him because Trump has asked them to in support of him and they believe him. You are watching history be made.

UPDATE 2:

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver did a episode tonight on "family separation". It was about how about 6 months ago, when a family of illegal immigrants would arrive they would separate the children from the parents. His conclusion is that the Democrats should make this election about it. Don't make the election about how your representatives should be looking out for your best interests, make it about how your representatives should be looking out for people that aren't even in the country. This is why the Democratic party is doomed on Tuesday. The media and the corporate Democrats don't give a damn about the millions of kids in Foster care and they don't give a damn about the homeless. The corporate Republicans don't give a damn about them either; but, the Republicans are running on helping Americans. The Democrats are running on this rather that universal healthcare or breaking up the banks. Stupid.