Friday, January 16, 2015

An Aging Population and Finding Something to Write About

Not reading any interesting news. That is not quite true, I have not seen any news that needed a comment from me. I have nothing to say about Charlie Hebdo that hasn't already been said by someone. My opinion on the economy has not changed, stocks will crash; but, I don't know when, I have no date for it. There is no new tech that is worth discussing that I have not already posted on.

I deleted about 10 recent drafts because as I was writing them I could tell they were not going anywhere and just saved them to come back to later. I came back to them and they still went nowhere.

I do not have writers block, I just lack any material of interest that has not been repeated by others already. Wait, I do have something to discuss.

Pew Research - Baby Boomers Approach 65 – Glumly.

The article says that for the last 5 years, 10,000 baby boomers were expected to retire each day and that will continue for another 14 years. That is about 300,000 a month or 3.65 million a year. The highest the birth rate got in America was 25.7 in 1957 (according to the US census) and the current birthrate is only 13.8. The birth rate has pretty much gone down since 1965. No matter what we do, the population is and will continue to decrease. As the boomers die, this will become apparent as there will be not enough people to replace them in the workforce.

Here is what I want you to consider, the people that run this country have known this for a very long time. A report was issued by the Rockefeller Commission in 1972 that talked about what was coming, the relevant chapter is Chapter 2.

Chapter 2: Population Growth

The report specifically goes into what these boomers retirements will mean. President W. Bush had another report that looked at the impact of boomers retirements when he was in office. I cannot seem to remember the name of it; but, I have linked to it before.

During the late 1960s and the 1970s we were steadily told about overpopulation if the birth rate did not increase and it did not. In fact we are facing a decrease in population. We saw part of the effect this had during the decade before the market crash as the unemployment went very low and was considered too low. Companies were increasing wages and taking people with less experience to just fill the jobs.

Some of you are wondering why I mention birth rates and retirements at all. I mention it because the government and business have been planning and anticipating this for over 45 years. That is part of the purpose of outsourcing and globalization. Now is an interesting little fact, when men get jobs they are more likely to marry and have children, when women get jobs they are less likely to have children or certainly many children. I should note that one of the fastest growing areas of home buyers is single women, that has been true for 20 years and women now make up the majority of college graduates.

We are told that the baby boom was caused by returning vets; but, it continued for 20 years long after they had returned because we needed new workers. Don't forget the boom hit it's peek in 1957, 12 years after the end of the war. American industry boomed after World War II and it was easy to get a good paying union supported job, as a consequence wages saw real increases and housing became affordable. In the early 1960s the "American Dream" was to get a good job, get married, move to the suburbs and have 2 to 3 kids.

We are creating five classes of people in America. The poor, the working poor (low paying jobs for life), barely getting by class (not paid enough to have the American Dream, the average worker), middle class of professionals and small businessman and a class of the very well off. The number of poor will increase until the population begins reducing, then they will be offered low paying jobs. The working poor will increase as we know already, jobs have come back to America; but they are not the jobs that left, they are low paying primarily. The barely getting by class will increase as a percentage of the population and people with jobs. The middle class will shrink and only be populated by professionals and small business owners. That is the future.

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