Wednesday, May 29, 2013

How surprising, confusion on the stock market.

Last Friday there was a lot of chatter about the Federal Reserve buying less bonds and easing on the quantitative easing. That caused the Japanese stock exchange to lose 10 percent and then came the three day weekend. You might have expected the Dow to drop; but, it rose supposedly because Bernake said they would keep one buying bonds. He did not say how many. Today it lost as much as it gained on Tuesday.

This is from the Financial Times - Larry Summers has an edge in the race to head the Federal Reserve. Here is my take on it, Bernake has not had the job that long and is leaving just prior or while something big goes on. He is leaving soon. There is an old joke. A guy takes over a big company and his predecessor leaves him three envelopes. The envelopes are in order and tell him to open them as he faces any crisis.

He messes up and the company loses money. He opens the first envelope and it says, "Blame the last guy that had your job". A few months later he messes up again and he opens the second envelope, it says, "Blame your employees". He makes a mistake and loses money a few months later and opens the third envelope. It says, "Prepare three envelopes". Mr. Bernake is leaving because he has run out of things to blame. His replacement will follow the exact same policies.

Yahoo - The Daily Ticker - Sallie Krawcheck: Big Banks Still Don’t Have Enough Capital. Expect volatility and when the game is over expect it to be hard to get credit. If banks have to hold more in deposits then they have less to lend, it is that simple.

Yahoo - On the Road to a Japanese Debt Crisis. This is all a joke, the point of everything in the media is to make you unsure. I will tell you how it ends and have. Don't freak out when the markets get volatile (jump and wildly up and downs). Make good long term bets and stick with them.

CNBC - Market May Be Near Top: Technician. They are telling you that the market will get volatile. They are flat out saying that the market has reached the top and will dip.

CNBC - Is the Dollar Dying? Why US Currency Is in Danger. Again, mainstream media telling you what I have been saying. The dollar is dying.

Real Currencies - The Dying Dollar and the Rise of a New Currency Order. Wake up, it is not just me that sees what is coming.

Don't buy stakes in banks, it is a trick and I don't care what they say. Here is the tricky news. Market Watch - Bank stocks lead on stronger economic data. There are people who believe that if they are going to declare bankruptcy, they might as well run up their debt just prior to. They even pay their attorney's with their credit cards. Even though the ex left me with lots of credit debt, I payed it all off. I didn't pay my attorney with other people's moneys (credit cards) and I did not declare bankruptcy (though I could have), I paid my debts. If the IMF, FDIC and Bank of England are correct about what is coming then we are eeing the rats jump the ship and taking as much as they can before they go.

Yahoo - Reuters - Nasdaq to pay $10 million to settle SEC charges from Facebook snafu. Read the article, it says that NASDAQ cost Facebook $500,000,000 in losses by a "snafu". LOL. They got fined $10 million dollars. What happened to the other $490,000,000? Oh well, people make mistakes.The system is corrupt and people who do make it on their own, like Zuckerman, get taken advantage of. Still, he made so much, he didn't care because money is not what he is about even if I disagree with him on many things.

Watch for volatility, swings in the markets, all markets. Have a great week. I have had the stomach flu the last two days. Hope it is over by tomorrow.

6 Years

I cannot believe that I began this blog six years ago. Wow. I went to look at the stats and am amazed. One little voice heard tens of thousands of times. What started as a prank, if you will, has more readers now than ever and I write less. There may only be 15 followers; but, I get over 1,500 hits a month. If I got paid a dollar for every hit each month, I still would not monetize this site, not gonna happen.

In looking at the stats I was shocked that I have been doing this for six years and people still care. Recently, one of my readers and I were talking on the phone and he told me how much he enjoyed reading my stuff. That makes me feel fantastic. I am amazed that even though I don't focus on any one issue and even though I don't have lots of pictures (I am not good at uploading or downloading them) and even though I don't even bother editing my stuff, that people still want to see what I will talk about next. I talk about what I see.

Someone recently asked me what I like the most in my life and I told them, I like writing this blog. I don't know why I am still alive, the stupid doctors have promised me many times that I should be dead and haven't gotten it right yet. Thank you to everyone who has ever read my silly little words. I look at this blog like the man looks at the woman in this video. Lets see what is behind the curtain.

YouTube - Joe Cocker - You Can Leave Your Hat On.

"You give me reason to live". Thanks.

I miss you dearest Robbie

Dearest Robbie,

I do hope you understand that most people that read my blog have no idea who you are or why I love you so. You were so supportive of me at a time when I needed some reassurance. I miss you. I am glad that you still read and enjoy my musical selections. If you are ever going to Vegas, we still have to get together so I can show you the town. Some more music for you. You may recall that I wanted to send a letter to a lady and did not. She has since passed away from some disease, this is the music that all makes me think of her. I don't even know why; but, I hope you enjoy it.

YouTube - Steely Dan - Aja (1977) Full Album

Keep watching the markets, look for confusion.

I don't know exactly it will all begin. It is not as obvious as the housing bubble or the stock crash before. There are too many balls in the air at once. What we are seeing in the media is either "everything is okay" or "the crash is coming". I don't think it is that concrete. I believe we are going to implode; but, I don't think it is all at once. It could be; but, that is not how it usually works. It crashes by industry, one goes and then another goes and then another goes. The housing bubble burst months before the stock crashed.

Here are somethings that people are saying.

Silver Doctors - Jim Sinclair: Entire US Banking System Missed a Bail-in Collapse by a Hair Tuesday!. I don't agree with everything he says and I don't believe in buying precious metals nor do I nor will I ever sell anything on the blog. I think a "bail-in" is coming because the IMF, FDIC and Bank of England have all said so; but, as I said previously, I expect a lot of volatility in the markets first.

InvestmentWatch - 100% Chance Of Stock Market Crash Coming Near Future. Listen to what the guy says all the way through. Again, I don't agree with everything he is saying; but, he states a lot of things that are underlying facts and gives the references.

InvestmentWatch - CNBC - The Venerable Jack Bogle Has Warned Us A 25-50% Downward Move Is Almost Certain. This is a mainstream media show with a respected individual saying the same thing. He says it may come in three waves. I don't know how many waves; but, it is coming.

InvestmentWatch - Basel III: How The Bank For International Settlements Is Going To Help Bring Down The Global Economy. The article has good links and I apologize for not having really talked about Basel before. He gives a decent summary of what it is, you can also go to Wikipedia. Bottom line, an international organization that has a lot more control over your sovereignty than you knew.

Huffington Post - Beware Capitalist Tools. I happen to like real capitalism so I disagree with his title. What he points out is how much the financial reporters owe to the financial industry and why they do what they are told.

FoxNews - Eye spy: Facial recognition software is coming to Google Glass
. I said Google glasses would have biometric identification, Google said it wouldn't and gosh darn, turns out that there is an app for that, how surprising. What google really meant was that the app would not be made by them and built into the system, you have to buy it from a third party. I wonder if the security setting for the glasses allows you to have it scan your iris so that nobody else can use them?

The way we are led by the nose is pretty simple. The majority that you hear all sing the same song. Everything is bad or getting better or getting worse of whatever. A few disagree and are shut down and ridiculed. Just about all have a stake in the game. The trick is to get you to stop listening to the ones that are right because money is made off of your being wrong. The stock market will come down; but, I still say if you have stock keep it and wait it out. That is also what Jack Bogle said. I gave the exact same advice as Mr. Bogle before him. Now, go look up who he is. Wikipedia - John C. Bogle. This is like an Index Fund Warren Buffet.

I cannot tell you which asset class will collapse first, it could be any of them. It doesn't really matter which comes first, they all effect one another. I cannot say with any certainty when the first will go. I happen to watch for triple witching hours on Wall Street; but, there are other key dates when long term bets need to be made. Heck, the collapses could begin in the currency trading markets if nobody wants our dollars, it could happen in the energy markets first. Lots of options.

You know what, I know what to look for possibly. If we think of the Cyprus situation, it rattled all of the European Union and is only a very small percentage of it's population and GDP. They also were described as bad people because they were laundering money for rich Russians. I think it will be the banks, they haven't changed their ways, cheated the rules on the Mortgage relief they were supposed to provide. I think it will be the banks more than the stock market that begins the ball rolling. Who would put up with another trillion dollar bail out of banks? I don't think people would, they will prefer the bail in.

The logic will please everyone. If I deposited in a bank and the bank failed, I would want to be paid before the stock holders because what they lost was not their money; but, my money. Yet, they kept the stock and gave themselves bonuses. We need a good fall guy even though all the industries are guilty. I think it will be the bankers. Heck, you have to hate them enough to become stockholders in them after breaking them up into a million pieces. Yeah, that would be the ones.

No matter how it turns out, it turns out the same. The IMF did not spend years coming up with a plan if they didn't know a problem was coming. If the banks start to fail, keep your money in the bank. If the stock market goes down, keep your money in the stock market. When whatever fails, fails, keep your money in it and wait it out. All indexes come back. Once you sell, you are stuck and they know that. Warren Buffet did not sell off during the market crash, he waited and bought.

Mr. Buffet said very rude once. He was on 20/20 I believe and he walked past a picture of lots of people in a crowd and said that he "Protected the asses of the masses" and he meant it. In my opinion, Mr. Buffet and Mr. Gates are two people who believe in individual achievement. They are two very smart people who just don't know God; but, believe in truth and freedom and prosperity for others. Neither is a selfish individual and both have pledged their fortunes to others to help them as they believe people should be helped. My deepest regret is that I believe these two men misunderstood what they were up against. What I don't think they really understand is that this game was taken out of their hands and even the hands of those who they are protecting us from long, long ago.

There is a movie coming out that I am going to see. From Yahoo, it is called, "Now You See Me". There is also a show coming out that I want to see, it is on NBC and is called, "The Blacklist".