Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Trump Versus the Republican Establishment. Trump 7 - Establishment 0.

New York Magazine - Republican Billionaires Just Can’t Seem to Buy This Election. An amusing article talking about all the billionaires backing the establishment candidates. It is interesting that the biggest Cruz donor is a hedge fund manager. Maybe that is why the other Republican candidates failed to support call for hedge fund managers to pay the same taxes as the rest of us. The end of the article talks about how all of Jeb Bushes big contributors held a meeting to complain that he wasn't getting any popular support even after they spend tens of millions. I bet you some of them were involved in the meeting to discuss forcing a brokered election. Ben Carson knows something that the others don't, if the election is brokered it will be a Jeb Bush nomination, not Carson and definitely not Cruz. Rand Paul certainly does not even win in a brokered election.

YouTube - Glenn Beck Reveals a Story He Hasn't Been Able to Share for Over a Year - GOP 'COUP' STORY. I want to start by saying I think Glenn Beck says some really stupid stuff and holds political far right beliefs that I don't agree with. Having said that, I think he believes in what he says and is a full blown Libertarian and Tea Party supporter. His story is about how the Republican establishment infiltrated and attempted to co-op the Freedom Works organization. They dumped all the Libertarian Republicans when it was getting more support within the Republican party. The video is from over two years ago; but, what he is discussing is what is going on between the establishment Republicans and Donald Trump.

Huffington Post - The end is nigh for Donald Trump. That is according to Jeb Bush at a meeting with his donors in November. In fact, Jeb specifically told people that Trump would be in Decline by December 15th, the date of the next Republican debate; but, Bush said this in November when Trump was still going up in the polls. Why did he pick the December 15th date? My guess, he knew that the establishment was going to all go after Trump at the same time as they have for the past month and he probably knew it would be an organized effort.

Huffington Post - Why You Should Stop Freaking Out About The New Trump Poll. Basically another article that saying the polls don't mean anything when it comes to Trump. Everytime a poll says Trump is not in front the media makes a big deal about it and talks about Trump being in decline and everytime another poll shows his numbers staying or increasing it is discussed as not real. Trump has been leading the race since the start and has just increased his lead to 41% with Bush only at 3%. I guess Bush was wrong when he said Trump would be in decline by the 15th because tomorrow is the 15th and the last debate.

December 15, 2015 there is going to be another Republican debate and it will be the last one for this year. You might think all of the other candidates might attack Trump and they may; but, that would be really dangerous as if anyone is going to get more support than Trump they will need his supporters. It should also be noted that the more Trump is attacked, the more his support grows. People in the Republican believe this is their only chance to elect somebody who is not bought and paid for and the party insiders are scared almost to the point of hysteria. I do hope all my readers watch the debate, it will be fascinating and tell you a lot about how this race is going to go.

In any other year the party elite would be telling everyone with less than 5% support to leave and throw their support behind the leading candidate. They don't want anyone to leave because they fear the votes will go to Trump or at least a portion of them and further put him up in the polls. What happens after Iowa and New Hampshire when certain candidates practically no votes? How do they stay in the election. What justification do they use?

Now lets talk about the Iowa Caucus. It is not a vote, it is a caucus and only the party elect get to vote. Caucuses are like the electoral college, they are not a popular vote. If someone other than Trump is going to last, they will need to make a good showing in Iowa. If Trump wins the caucus, the game is over for any establishment candidate. I would not be surprised if Trump did not outright win the caucus because it is insiders. I expect him to come in a strong second or win and I expect Bush to do better than his poll number for the same reason. If Trump does not win in Iowa it will further annoy Republicans who want their vote and their opinion to matter to the party and show how the party does not represent them. After Iowa comes New Hampshire, the first real primary. The thing to look for in that election is who comes out to vote for whom. What happens if the Republican party gains more voters because Trump is running? How does the party then continue to try and undermine him and not further turn off voters? This is the most interesting election in my lifetime. Nationally it is not the most important in my life; but, it is the most important in the life of the Republican party.


I want to double down on something I already posted. Iowa is not representative of Republicans, it is representative of the Republican establishment. Caucuses are where someone votes for you even when you don't get to tell them how you want them to vote. A caucus represents a minority of their own party, the "true believers", the party elite. It is sort of like the Oscars, you have to be in the industry to vote for someone to get an Academy Award. It is not a popular vote, it is a class based vote.

Fox - With rise in polls, Cruz becomes potential Trump target in Tuesday's GOP debate.

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