I hope this a fair question. Why are Americans so ignorant? Not stupid, ignorant. Stupid has to do with ability, ignorant is a choice. It is the choice not to see what is around us or learn what the truth may be.
Lets look at this another way. How much more of this world would you be aware of if you tried? How much are you capable of being aware of? How often when presenting and argument do you quote an expert rather than the source?
Part of the answer is that some people are incapable of understanding anything, it is a small amount. Truly retarded or mentally disabled are a small fraction of the population. One does not need an IQ of 130 to read the newspaper or retain what is read. That means the vast majority of us are ignorant for other reasons.
Some people have limited or no access to information. Some people live in the depths of the Amazon or Papua New Guinea, the vast majority of us do not. To again ask my question another way, why do so many Americans know as little about the way the world works who are not mentally disabled and have access to news, books and the Internet?
Now some people will complain that they don't have the time. I guarantee that if you spent less than one hour a day reading you would begin to understand the world better. One hour well spent will change your world and I am not talking about your local paper. How many hours a day do you spend playing video games, exercising, watching television?
We are over occupied and call it entertainment or leisure. This is a symptom not the cause of our ignorance. We are ignorant by choice. We choose not to spend the time or choose not to investigate. We want the answers rather than to work through the facts to determine our own answers. We want an expert to tell us so that we don't have to do the work.
Another reason we remain ignorant is because we like to believe that the world is simple that things are the way we have been taught. As we grow older we become biased and begin ignoring things that go against our ego and our own agenda, we only want to know what we need to in order to get what we want, we think we get it all.
The older I get the more I do know that what I know is severely limited in scope and in depth. That has been how people have historically felt; but, not anymore. Now people get older and think they understand everything. They do not even want to consider that the world is not as they believe. Challenge their beliefs with facts and they become indignant, challenge their view of themselves and they become irate.
I began this blog with a question about existence. The only thing we can really know is that we exist, the rest is perceived. That single statement condemns all other beliefs to be conjecture, not fact, conjecture. Science teaches the opposite. It teaches that all we perceive is real and that we are momentary. Up is down and down is up.
Our ability to perceive, even with all the tools and science in the world, is so pitifully limited as to be laughable. We are ants looking at a world and can never understand that we are part of a universe. Do you really believe we understand the universe, do you then believe that we will not learn more about it in the future?
There are people who claim that we are going into the Age of Aquarius, they say we are on the verge of a great "spiritual awakening". If we are, we are unprepared. Most of us don't even know what the Lisbon Treaty is or what the Council on Foreign Relations is, how can we hope to understand more when we don't even understand the basics?
A child being exposed to trigonometry is incapable of understanding it if he does not understand basic math. I often ask very intelligent systems people, "Who owns the internet?" None have answered me correctly. I previously posted about this and it is still on the blog, so I will not repeat it. They don't know because they believe it is not relevant to what they do. It doesn't get them anymore cookies and people only want information that will get them cookies. Relevance.
Relevance is shorthand for, "Will it get me what I want". My response is that all knowledge has value. A philosopher is a lover of knowledge, a scientist is a lover of answers. They lie, scientists do, they tell us that in order for something to be accepted as truth it must be repeatable and then they tell us that the big bang theory is true. Yet, it is not repeatable. I am neither agreeing nor disagreeing with the big bang theory, it is the lie that I question.
Eventually all science and all experts reach the end of their understanding, of understanding things through their single lens. Egyptologists cannot explain why the Sphinx is at least 5,000 years old and predates dynastic egypt (geologists versus egyptologists, experts against each other with no common ground). At some point in time, true understanding requires challenging precepts as our understanding of other things grows. Well, I have to cut this short and snore. Nobody to hear so it doesn't matter. Be well.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Amusing Stories
I think I have posted too much on news for the moment and want to give the reader a chuckle. I have two Las Vegas stories that I think are amusing. They are absolutely true and I hope they bring a smile to your face.
Before my father died, he used to like going to Vegas and I tried to take him there once a month. He would play for hours nonstop. I could only play for a bit and would get bored. As a consequence I would go to the shows. Now here is something that the readers can use. In Vegas the best seats are kept for the high rollers and their wives. Frequently only the wife will take the seat while the husband gambles. That means you can usually get one seat. As my dad did not go to the shows, I usually got one seat up front. The moral is, if you want the best seat in the house, go alone.
One weekend I wanted to see a traditional Las Vegas show, the longest running show was at the Tropicana, it was the Follies Bergere. I bought a ticket and went, front row, far right (stage left for actors, lol). Having been a stage manager I like to sit far to the right or left so that I can see backstage.
Let me tell you about the show. In addition to be the longest running Vegas show, it was a variety show. It was very family friendly except at night when it was topless. The ladies were mostly natural and a little older than on most of the strip as the show had run longer. There was singing and dancing and jugglers (the juggler was very funny) and it was a real variety show. The ladies were lovely, old school Vegas dancers.
On the night I went, a newlywed couple sat across from me. I was in my mid forties, bald, short, glasses, grey, wearing a Hawaiian shirt. The couple was 30 or so. The show began and there was a dancing number, it was ballroom dancing. One of the lady dancers was having a hard day. When the couple dancing turned and stopped, the lady dancer thought nobody could see her as her partner blocked her from the audience; but, I could see her because I was on the far right side. When they stopped she looked at her partner and started complaining about something, I think her feet hurt. She looked to the side and noticed that I had seen her break character. She was embarrassed, I only found it charming, I have worked too many stages.
Now, let me tell you about this showgirl. She was beautiful and tall and graceful and probably in her early 30s. The kind of woman men love to be seen with and in the longest running Vegas show in history. I have no doubt that she was the complete professional, a joy to behold for an old stage manager. You can only imagine how hard the life of a showgirl is, lots of work, hard work, dreadful costumes, high heels and hard dancing, she had amazing legs, dancers do; but, there is a price for it. She probably had a family and was working to provide for them.
Well, this young lady made a mistake, she broke character, that is frowned upon by professionals and she knew I had seen, that is the worst, an audience member caught her. As she complained to her dance partner, she noticed that I had seen everything, she was embarrassed. The show continued and later just the ladies were dancing, all of them topless. At one point, the lady ended up in front of me, she looked over at me and smiled and winked, as if to say, "You caught me". Now comes the best part.
The young newlywed man saw this statuesque, beautiful, amazing showgirl wink at a little old man. He turned and looked at me with most baffled look a guy can have. As if to say, who the heck are you that this showgirl is winking at you during the show. LOL. His confusing and reaction made my night. For the rest of the evening he would turn and make this puzzled face at me, probably assumed I was rich.
My next story is semi-sad. One of my best friends lost his mother. When she died I offered to fly to the east coast and attend the funeral. Instead he asked that I take he and his father to Vegas, to get away. Some time passed and they flew out, I got us a nice hotel and stayed with his father. The first night I was ill. I had bought tickets for some show and we went. It had a former playboy or playmate model, I don't remember which. We had front row seats and I was dying, headache, nauseous, a real mess; but, I wanted his father to see the show so I went. Did I mention front row. Yeah.
There the three of us were sitting and me ready to pass out from being sick and in pain. My friends father had never been to Vegas and this was his first Vegas show. The show began and the playmate was lifter on a chair and put above the audience, she ended up just in front of me, a half naked playmate, she looked down and waved and smiled at me in front of my friends dad. He thought I knew everyone in town. I was just sitting in the right place at the right time. It was great.
I treasure the times I was allowed to take my father and my friend's father to Vegas. I treasure the fact that I was allowed to do something for them. When my father was dying, my friends father, who I had not met in person, was very nice to my father, they worked in the same industry but did not know each other, they had toiled the same ground. I was very blessed that I could have two such men appreciate me and let them know they were appreciated. Real men, old school, tough as nails and quiet until they needed to be firm.
These men paid their dues for their families and did not complain much. They were old school and worthy of my respect. Even in my 50s I still refer to my friends dad as Mr. It is respect. It is earned and happily given. It is not agreement on everything, it is respect for the gifts they have given others. I did not know this was going to be about fathers, I guess it was just on my mind. I miss my father and my mother, greatly.
Before my father died, he used to like going to Vegas and I tried to take him there once a month. He would play for hours nonstop. I could only play for a bit and would get bored. As a consequence I would go to the shows. Now here is something that the readers can use. In Vegas the best seats are kept for the high rollers and their wives. Frequently only the wife will take the seat while the husband gambles. That means you can usually get one seat. As my dad did not go to the shows, I usually got one seat up front. The moral is, if you want the best seat in the house, go alone.
One weekend I wanted to see a traditional Las Vegas show, the longest running show was at the Tropicana, it was the Follies Bergere. I bought a ticket and went, front row, far right (stage left for actors, lol). Having been a stage manager I like to sit far to the right or left so that I can see backstage.
Let me tell you about the show. In addition to be the longest running Vegas show, it was a variety show. It was very family friendly except at night when it was topless. The ladies were mostly natural and a little older than on most of the strip as the show had run longer. There was singing and dancing and jugglers (the juggler was very funny) and it was a real variety show. The ladies were lovely, old school Vegas dancers.
On the night I went, a newlywed couple sat across from me. I was in my mid forties, bald, short, glasses, grey, wearing a Hawaiian shirt. The couple was 30 or so. The show began and there was a dancing number, it was ballroom dancing. One of the lady dancers was having a hard day. When the couple dancing turned and stopped, the lady dancer thought nobody could see her as her partner blocked her from the audience; but, I could see her because I was on the far right side. When they stopped she looked at her partner and started complaining about something, I think her feet hurt. She looked to the side and noticed that I had seen her break character. She was embarrassed, I only found it charming, I have worked too many stages.
Now, let me tell you about this showgirl. She was beautiful and tall and graceful and probably in her early 30s. The kind of woman men love to be seen with and in the longest running Vegas show in history. I have no doubt that she was the complete professional, a joy to behold for an old stage manager. You can only imagine how hard the life of a showgirl is, lots of work, hard work, dreadful costumes, high heels and hard dancing, she had amazing legs, dancers do; but, there is a price for it. She probably had a family and was working to provide for them.
Well, this young lady made a mistake, she broke character, that is frowned upon by professionals and she knew I had seen, that is the worst, an audience member caught her. As she complained to her dance partner, she noticed that I had seen everything, she was embarrassed. The show continued and later just the ladies were dancing, all of them topless. At one point, the lady ended up in front of me, she looked over at me and smiled and winked, as if to say, "You caught me". Now comes the best part.
The young newlywed man saw this statuesque, beautiful, amazing showgirl wink at a little old man. He turned and looked at me with most baffled look a guy can have. As if to say, who the heck are you that this showgirl is winking at you during the show. LOL. His confusing and reaction made my night. For the rest of the evening he would turn and make this puzzled face at me, probably assumed I was rich.
My next story is semi-sad. One of my best friends lost his mother. When she died I offered to fly to the east coast and attend the funeral. Instead he asked that I take he and his father to Vegas, to get away. Some time passed and they flew out, I got us a nice hotel and stayed with his father. The first night I was ill. I had bought tickets for some show and we went. It had a former playboy or playmate model, I don't remember which. We had front row seats and I was dying, headache, nauseous, a real mess; but, I wanted his father to see the show so I went. Did I mention front row. Yeah.
There the three of us were sitting and me ready to pass out from being sick and in pain. My friends father had never been to Vegas and this was his first Vegas show. The show began and the playmate was lifter on a chair and put above the audience, she ended up just in front of me, a half naked playmate, she looked down and waved and smiled at me in front of my friends dad. He thought I knew everyone in town. I was just sitting in the right place at the right time. It was great.
I treasure the times I was allowed to take my father and my friend's father to Vegas. I treasure the fact that I was allowed to do something for them. When my father was dying, my friends father, who I had not met in person, was very nice to my father, they worked in the same industry but did not know each other, they had toiled the same ground. I was very blessed that I could have two such men appreciate me and let them know they were appreciated. Real men, old school, tough as nails and quiet until they needed to be firm.
These men paid their dues for their families and did not complain much. They were old school and worthy of my respect. Even in my 50s I still refer to my friends dad as Mr. It is respect. It is earned and happily given. It is not agreement on everything, it is respect for the gifts they have given others. I did not know this was going to be about fathers, I guess it was just on my mind. I miss my father and my mother, greatly.
Sunday Again
It is Sunday and it is Father's Day. I miss my father and appreciate all that he did for me. He was good dad, not perfect, none of us are. Being parent means never being right again. To all the fathers out there, Happy Father's Day, I hope you are appreciated and that you appreciate your father.
If we are selfish we think about what we did not get, if we are loving we remember what we did. It is all a matter of perspective. Nobody can fulfill our expectations completely and we cannot fulfill anyone else's completely. What we focus on is a statement about us.
A dear lady sent me a link to a video of a motivational speaker. He is not like every other motivational speaker. His motto is, "No arms, no legs, no worries". I would like you to watch this short video, it might just make you appreciate what you do have a little bit.
Nick Vujicic
One of my cousins lost his father on his wedding day. It was a horrifyingly sad event. About a year later, he had his first baby. She is a beautiful girl. This year he had his first son, he is equally beautiful. We were so thrilled to have something positive happen in our family, too many deaths and no births in years. I put a picture of the baby on my office door to remember that good does happen.
There is a lady in my office who I have known for 30 years. When she is feeling down she walks by my door to look at the smiling picture of the newborn baby. Now she sees both pictures. I never meant to keep them on my door; but, I cannot them down because I know they brighten her day and I like seeing them too. I am providing a link to a song for people to think about the first time they saw the face of someone they came to love.
Roberta Flack - The first time ever I saw your face
If we are selfish we think about what we did not get, if we are loving we remember what we did. It is all a matter of perspective. Nobody can fulfill our expectations completely and we cannot fulfill anyone else's completely. What we focus on is a statement about us.
A dear lady sent me a link to a video of a motivational speaker. He is not like every other motivational speaker. His motto is, "No arms, no legs, no worries". I would like you to watch this short video, it might just make you appreciate what you do have a little bit.
Nick Vujicic
One of my cousins lost his father on his wedding day. It was a horrifyingly sad event. About a year later, he had his first baby. She is a beautiful girl. This year he had his first son, he is equally beautiful. We were so thrilled to have something positive happen in our family, too many deaths and no births in years. I put a picture of the baby on my office door to remember that good does happen.
There is a lady in my office who I have known for 30 years. When she is feeling down she walks by my door to look at the smiling picture of the newborn baby. Now she sees both pictures. I never meant to keep them on my door; but, I cannot them down because I know they brighten her day and I like seeing them too. I am providing a link to a song for people to think about the first time they saw the face of someone they came to love.
Roberta Flack - The first time ever I saw your face
A Personal Post on Pension Reform
I work for a governmental entity. I have for over 20 years. During that time I have made and saved hundreds of millions of dollars. I did not come to the government for security, it was my career choice and that is why I took the courses I did in school.
Over the course of my career I have had numerous opportunities to leave the government and make more money in private industry and make more money, I chose to stay. I am well paid and have few complaints about that. When my life came apart I almost left. I almost quit to become a consultant. I had a half million dollars in contracts in under 30 minutes and wasn't trying to get any.
The people who know me, know this to be true, the people who do not probably cannot believe it. It is what it is. Most people that work for government cannot just take a job on the outside and make four times as much. I know this. They stay because of their pensions and benefits.
Part of the reason I stayed was because of my pension. In five years I can begin to draw my pension and retire. Only one problem, half goes to the ex. It would be better for me to leave, make more and start a 401k or invest in stock. I have many options. Best case scenario would be for me to go into consulting and create a new self made pension. I plan on staying for a bit, as long as my health is manageable.
When I went into government, I was told that I would get a specific benefit, a pension calculated and guaranteed. I was told the government would put aside a specific amount each year. I didn't, few did. They made the promises; but, when times were good counted on making large returns on the pension investments. Markets go up and down, the bets failed eventually.
Nationwide government pensions are under scrutiny. Few, very few, governments put the money in the pension funds that they promised and instead turned to riskier and riskier investments. Government pension funds were then also used for political ends. Government Pensions invested in things that the government wanted to achieve, in exchange the government allowed them to do insider trading, constructively.
The Federal government turned a blind eye to all of what was happening as long as the pensions invested in things that the fed wanted to see grow. A problem occurred, a culture of corruption was created. That culture led to graft and bribery. Now we have the outcome, failed government pension systems nationwide.
Because of the underfunding of the pensions, the failure of governments to put in the amount needed at the time, the pensions will fail. If the governments were to make up for what they did not pay at the time, they will be unable to pay their present employees. That is the reality we are facing.
As a consequence of the above, we are now faced with a choice. We can, as a society, not provide the promised payments we made for service done, we can put the burden on future government employees or find a hybrid solution. Doubling taxes to pay for the promises made to government employees, including me, is not a viable solution in this economy.
I have been cheated. I and many others have already given our time, spent our careers in government service in exchange for a promise. That promise is now a lie. I gave up making more, making different choices based on a societal promise. I am being asked to screw future employees or accept that I was cheated and find an alternate situation.
I cannot get back the career options, choices of the past two plus decades, I cannot redo my life. I cannot have married someone different. Government employees are being asked to make the decision about their pensions. They are being asked to condemn the future employees to working 40 years, rather than 30, or insist upon tax increases.
Private company employees are in a similar situation. Social Security is also $1 trillion underfunded. The government did not put the money aside to pay for social security. That means privately employed people are being asked to pay for public pensions or their own. Keep your promises and go without or fail to meet your promises and take care of yourself.
The question is how we solve these problems. It will determine the type of society we create in the future. If we choose to cheat future employees, they will steal you blind, private and public. It is not a solution you will like and future employees will not help retiring ones if that is our societal answer.
ON AVERAGE, people are living longer. That does mean that we will have to change the pension systems because of the actuarial tables. It does not mean that we have to make upcoming employees pay for our pensions. Rather than allowing ourselves to be conquered and divided, what if we all compromised. I will gladly allow the next ten years of my pension to be based on a new formula if it will allow the new employees to only work an extra five years rather than 10+. I will not ask taxpayers, I pay them also, to not have services in order to meet the promises they made to me completely.
Everything I have said applies to Social Security, which I do not recieve but have paid into, and how we will deal with people on the private side. Will you saddle your children with working an extra ten years to get what you were promised?
Over the course of my career I have had numerous opportunities to leave the government and make more money in private industry and make more money, I chose to stay. I am well paid and have few complaints about that. When my life came apart I almost left. I almost quit to become a consultant. I had a half million dollars in contracts in under 30 minutes and wasn't trying to get any.
The people who know me, know this to be true, the people who do not probably cannot believe it. It is what it is. Most people that work for government cannot just take a job on the outside and make four times as much. I know this. They stay because of their pensions and benefits.
Part of the reason I stayed was because of my pension. In five years I can begin to draw my pension and retire. Only one problem, half goes to the ex. It would be better for me to leave, make more and start a 401k or invest in stock. I have many options. Best case scenario would be for me to go into consulting and create a new self made pension. I plan on staying for a bit, as long as my health is manageable.
When I went into government, I was told that I would get a specific benefit, a pension calculated and guaranteed. I was told the government would put aside a specific amount each year. I didn't, few did. They made the promises; but, when times were good counted on making large returns on the pension investments. Markets go up and down, the bets failed eventually.
Nationwide government pensions are under scrutiny. Few, very few, governments put the money in the pension funds that they promised and instead turned to riskier and riskier investments. Government pension funds were then also used for political ends. Government Pensions invested in things that the government wanted to achieve, in exchange the government allowed them to do insider trading, constructively.
The Federal government turned a blind eye to all of what was happening as long as the pensions invested in things that the fed wanted to see grow. A problem occurred, a culture of corruption was created. That culture led to graft and bribery. Now we have the outcome, failed government pension systems nationwide.
Because of the underfunding of the pensions, the failure of governments to put in the amount needed at the time, the pensions will fail. If the governments were to make up for what they did not pay at the time, they will be unable to pay their present employees. That is the reality we are facing.
As a consequence of the above, we are now faced with a choice. We can, as a society, not provide the promised payments we made for service done, we can put the burden on future government employees or find a hybrid solution. Doubling taxes to pay for the promises made to government employees, including me, is not a viable solution in this economy.
I have been cheated. I and many others have already given our time, spent our careers in government service in exchange for a promise. That promise is now a lie. I gave up making more, making different choices based on a societal promise. I am being asked to screw future employees or accept that I was cheated and find an alternate situation.
I cannot get back the career options, choices of the past two plus decades, I cannot redo my life. I cannot have married someone different. Government employees are being asked to make the decision about their pensions. They are being asked to condemn the future employees to working 40 years, rather than 30, or insist upon tax increases.
Private company employees are in a similar situation. Social Security is also $1 trillion underfunded. The government did not put the money aside to pay for social security. That means privately employed people are being asked to pay for public pensions or their own. Keep your promises and go without or fail to meet your promises and take care of yourself.
The question is how we solve these problems. It will determine the type of society we create in the future. If we choose to cheat future employees, they will steal you blind, private and public. It is not a solution you will like and future employees will not help retiring ones if that is our societal answer.
ON AVERAGE, people are living longer. That does mean that we will have to change the pension systems because of the actuarial tables. It does not mean that we have to make upcoming employees pay for our pensions. Rather than allowing ourselves to be conquered and divided, what if we all compromised. I will gladly allow the next ten years of my pension to be based on a new formula if it will allow the new employees to only work an extra five years rather than 10+. I will not ask taxpayers, I pay them also, to not have services in order to meet the promises they made to me completely.
Everything I have said applies to Social Security, which I do not recieve but have paid into, and how we will deal with people on the private side. Will you saddle your children with working an extra ten years to get what you were promised?
Saturday, June 19, 2010
News of the Day
Previously I had posted about how Putin had shown a new world currency. Here it is. Bloomberg announces that Medvedev shows off new world currency. Hey, maybe he is just kidding. Maybe he is a conspiracy theorist. I mean he is also calling for a New World Order with a one world economic basis and global government.
The move towards globalization is open, it is in your face, it is real and it is now. You can bury your head in the sand or make believe that it is not real; but, in the end you will live under it. If you do not know what the G20 is, it is the meeting of 20 major governments to discuss and set policies for the economy. A link to their website, you should get to know what they are saying.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Fascinating Times
I cannot help myself. Watching the changes in the world is just too fascinating for a Political Scientist. The Chinese have a blessing and a curse that says, "May you live in interesting times". We are living in such times. As a Political Scientist (while I have a doctorate in Law, I have always considered myself a Political Scientist and have a degree in it).
It is like being a physicist and looking at new planets. We live in a time of great risk; but, I cannot help but focus on the possibilities and implications politically. It is just my nature. I am sure that someone who studies spiders, if bit by a violin spider, would be unable to help themselves from observing and studying the effect on his body even when in pain.
Political Science at it's most fundamental is a fascination with understanding how societies manage themselves and attempting to determine what the best form of government is. Aristotle, Plato, Socrates, Rousseau, Locke, Hobbs, St. Thomas Aquinas, Voltaire, Marx, Jefferson, they all come rushing back to me as I watch the world transform around us. I cannot leave out Arnold Toynbee.
I also believe one should read Oswald Spengler. Both Spengler and Toynbee were fascinated by the question of the rise and fall of societies. When I refer to societies, I am not speaking about ethnic groups or nations, we are referring to people working together as a group regardless of the ethnic, religious, gender or other criteria. The group can consist of anyone who works with the group. The issue of the failure of societies has to do with when they stop working together and the society fails.
The question is do all societies fail? That is the issue for all societies. How do we prevent eventual failure? My answer is that we cannot. Nobody ever likes my answers. Failure is an option, it is inevitable because change is not an option. Philosophically, the necessity of failure is hated by most. The eternal struggle between stasis and growth.
The vast majority of people want comfort, stasis, a lack of change or challenge. Change and challenge lead to advancement. Because the majority want predictability and comfort, change agents (outliers, creative people) are held back. If they are effectively held back, no change occurs and societies eventually fail, that is unavoidable. If they are allowed to make too many changes, too soon, society cannot handle it and people refuse to adjust, things fail.
The key to the length of the survival of a society is their ability to deal with change agents, outliers. Both a lack of change and too much change destroy societies. Societies must move forward with some sort of consensus on how much change is acceptable and at what rate. The proper balance allowing for continual change to meet a changing environment is the heart of political science. The proper formula has yet to be found or proven.
The death of societies is always the same. Towards the end, they see that they are losing what they worked for, then they seek to be more restrictive and kill off dissent and difference. The world has changed and societies that had been dominant seek to prevent change. Rather than adjust, they resist and thereby ensure their own end.
We are witnessing the end of a way of life. The end of a civilization, a way of organizing society. Our concept of freedom, privacy, capitalism, religion and family is changing. How we organize ourselves and inter-relate to one another is changing. Western civilization, as we knew it, is undergoing many fundamental changes all at once. Few understand how it is changing; but, most can tell it is happening.
Is this planned by a few or just a natural cycle? Maybe both, it is however inevitable. How will we manage the change and what will we attempt to change into, that remains to be seen.
It is like being a physicist and looking at new planets. We live in a time of great risk; but, I cannot help but focus on the possibilities and implications politically. It is just my nature. I am sure that someone who studies spiders, if bit by a violin spider, would be unable to help themselves from observing and studying the effect on his body even when in pain.
Political Science at it's most fundamental is a fascination with understanding how societies manage themselves and attempting to determine what the best form of government is. Aristotle, Plato, Socrates, Rousseau, Locke, Hobbs, St. Thomas Aquinas, Voltaire, Marx, Jefferson, they all come rushing back to me as I watch the world transform around us. I cannot leave out Arnold Toynbee.
I also believe one should read Oswald Spengler. Both Spengler and Toynbee were fascinated by the question of the rise and fall of societies. When I refer to societies, I am not speaking about ethnic groups or nations, we are referring to people working together as a group regardless of the ethnic, religious, gender or other criteria. The group can consist of anyone who works with the group. The issue of the failure of societies has to do with when they stop working together and the society fails.
The question is do all societies fail? That is the issue for all societies. How do we prevent eventual failure? My answer is that we cannot. Nobody ever likes my answers. Failure is an option, it is inevitable because change is not an option. Philosophically, the necessity of failure is hated by most. The eternal struggle between stasis and growth.
The vast majority of people want comfort, stasis, a lack of change or challenge. Change and challenge lead to advancement. Because the majority want predictability and comfort, change agents (outliers, creative people) are held back. If they are effectively held back, no change occurs and societies eventually fail, that is unavoidable. If they are allowed to make too many changes, too soon, society cannot handle it and people refuse to adjust, things fail.
The key to the length of the survival of a society is their ability to deal with change agents, outliers. Both a lack of change and too much change destroy societies. Societies must move forward with some sort of consensus on how much change is acceptable and at what rate. The proper balance allowing for continual change to meet a changing environment is the heart of political science. The proper formula has yet to be found or proven.
The death of societies is always the same. Towards the end, they see that they are losing what they worked for, then they seek to be more restrictive and kill off dissent and difference. The world has changed and societies that had been dominant seek to prevent change. Rather than adjust, they resist and thereby ensure their own end.
We are witnessing the end of a way of life. The end of a civilization, a way of organizing society. Our concept of freedom, privacy, capitalism, religion and family is changing. How we organize ourselves and inter-relate to one another is changing. Western civilization, as we knew it, is undergoing many fundamental changes all at once. Few understand how it is changing; but, most can tell it is happening.
Is this planned by a few or just a natural cycle? Maybe both, it is however inevitable. How will we manage the change and what will we attempt to change into, that remains to be seen.
I Was Wrong - Sort of
Today was quadruple witching hour. It has come and gone with light trading. This is unusual and may be a very bad thing. Today was the day when options and futures for the next three months expired.
Options and Futures are bets on whether or not a stock will go up or down over the next three months. Lets say your pension fund (the largest investors on Wall Street) needs to make 6 to 8 percent per year. They may sell options that say if the stock increases or decreases beyond a certain amount, the person who bought the option takes the risk. It is a sort of insurance policy for institutional investors. If nobody buys the options than the pension has no insurance policy and cannot limit it's risk.
I had thought that the market was going to crash today, it did not, it did nothing and much fewer than normal trading was done. That means that the institutional investors are basically without insurance. So why weren't the options sold?
My best guess has to do with something the Federal Government announced very recently. They stated that if the market became too volatile that they would halt options trading. This makes options a bad investment. Options make the most money and lose the most when volatility is extreme. It is a question of possible return on investment. No point in buying a lottery ticket if the the odds are 1 in a million if my return is limited to $20.
I personally believe options are a bad thing. I understand the insurance value to the institutional investor; but, it turns the market into a casino rather than an investment. It also leads to people intentionally playing the market and stock values not being representative of the underlying value. I am not against what the government has done, per se. Problem is, the system is built around it and to change it without allowing people to change their format for protecting themselves from risk causes greater risk in the short term.
Now comes the real question, how do the pension funds avoid the risk of volatility at a time when greater numbers of people are retiring, how do they pay them? They end up having to sell off stock. Most likely consequence of this is to drive the price of stock down.
Long term, I think regulating stock trading as promoted by Warren Buffet is a great idea. Eliminate options and limit CEO pay. Base CEO pay on profits and not on stock valuations. These changes force CEOs to make companies work rather than making changes just to increase the short term value of the stock. To threaten to halt stock option trading days before quadruple witching hour; however, is wrong as people have not had an opportunity to find other insurance policies.
To understand the long term impact of these changes will take a little time. I believe that down the road, can't say when, you will see more and more stock in companies being owned by the employees themselves through their pensions. Remember 35% of the stock in GM is owned by the employees own pension funds (50% is owned by the Federal Government).
Basically, what is being created is a new form of large corporation. The employees end up controlling the companies and their retirements are only secure if the company runs well. They end up relying on the future employees to make sure that they have a pension. By ending options trading and tying Management pay to profitability it is believed that the employees and managers will care more about the long term health of the company. That is the logic behind these changes.
I do not believe you can call such a thing socialism unless the government owns 50% of the company. It is more along the lines of true communism where the workers own the means of production. Not a Soviet Union style communism (which was not the workers but the government owning everything). You can call it collectivism of a sort.
Lets say you work for GM. Cars are not selling, will you have the union try and get you a raise if it mean it will tank out your pension fund? Probably not. Will you tolerate lazy fellow employees, probably not. Will it increase animosity between employees, possibly. This is untried territory. How will it effect the relationship between management and employees. Remember the Union will be picking the management. Who will they pick and on what criteria? It will be interesting to see.
What will the managers of tomorrow look like and act like? It will take a little time; but, if this trend continues (and I believe it will) people will be more likely to stay at a job and learn to do it well. I am not promoting this change nor arguing against it, just trying to figure out what the impact will be. My fear is that the employees may be harder on each other than the managers ever were.
We are truly entering a brave new world.
Options and Futures are bets on whether or not a stock will go up or down over the next three months. Lets say your pension fund (the largest investors on Wall Street) needs to make 6 to 8 percent per year. They may sell options that say if the stock increases or decreases beyond a certain amount, the person who bought the option takes the risk. It is a sort of insurance policy for institutional investors. If nobody buys the options than the pension has no insurance policy and cannot limit it's risk.
I had thought that the market was going to crash today, it did not, it did nothing and much fewer than normal trading was done. That means that the institutional investors are basically without insurance. So why weren't the options sold?
My best guess has to do with something the Federal Government announced very recently. They stated that if the market became too volatile that they would halt options trading. This makes options a bad investment. Options make the most money and lose the most when volatility is extreme. It is a question of possible return on investment. No point in buying a lottery ticket if the the odds are 1 in a million if my return is limited to $20.
I personally believe options are a bad thing. I understand the insurance value to the institutional investor; but, it turns the market into a casino rather than an investment. It also leads to people intentionally playing the market and stock values not being representative of the underlying value. I am not against what the government has done, per se. Problem is, the system is built around it and to change it without allowing people to change their format for protecting themselves from risk causes greater risk in the short term.
Now comes the real question, how do the pension funds avoid the risk of volatility at a time when greater numbers of people are retiring, how do they pay them? They end up having to sell off stock. Most likely consequence of this is to drive the price of stock down.
Long term, I think regulating stock trading as promoted by Warren Buffet is a great idea. Eliminate options and limit CEO pay. Base CEO pay on profits and not on stock valuations. These changes force CEOs to make companies work rather than making changes just to increase the short term value of the stock. To threaten to halt stock option trading days before quadruple witching hour; however, is wrong as people have not had an opportunity to find other insurance policies.
To understand the long term impact of these changes will take a little time. I believe that down the road, can't say when, you will see more and more stock in companies being owned by the employees themselves through their pensions. Remember 35% of the stock in GM is owned by the employees own pension funds (50% is owned by the Federal Government).
Basically, what is being created is a new form of large corporation. The employees end up controlling the companies and their retirements are only secure if the company runs well. They end up relying on the future employees to make sure that they have a pension. By ending options trading and tying Management pay to profitability it is believed that the employees and managers will care more about the long term health of the company. That is the logic behind these changes.
I do not believe you can call such a thing socialism unless the government owns 50% of the company. It is more along the lines of true communism where the workers own the means of production. Not a Soviet Union style communism (which was not the workers but the government owning everything). You can call it collectivism of a sort.
Lets say you work for GM. Cars are not selling, will you have the union try and get you a raise if it mean it will tank out your pension fund? Probably not. Will you tolerate lazy fellow employees, probably not. Will it increase animosity between employees, possibly. This is untried territory. How will it effect the relationship between management and employees. Remember the Union will be picking the management. Who will they pick and on what criteria? It will be interesting to see.
What will the managers of tomorrow look like and act like? It will take a little time; but, if this trend continues (and I believe it will) people will be more likely to stay at a job and learn to do it well. I am not promoting this change nor arguing against it, just trying to figure out what the impact will be. My fear is that the employees may be harder on each other than the managers ever were.
We are truly entering a brave new world.
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